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Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model Live Chart

Data & charts updated every 5 minutes - Get 10 seconds

Important
This is the first version of stock to flow model!
Updated 3 minutes ago
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Chart

Current S/F (10D/463D)

104.67 / 62.66

Current Model Price (10D/463D) in USD

458697.81 / 98408.17

Next halving estimate

2028-03-22 22:48:38 UTC

There are three series on this graph:

Price end of day
Colored dots are representing end of day actual price (Y axis right side) in selected currency. Different colors are there to indicate how many days are left until next halving event. You can see color scale presented vertically on the right side of the chart.
Stock to flow 10 days
This is the purple line indicating what is the model price in selected currency. It has already been said that stock to flow is relationship between total stock against yearly production. In this "10 day" line we take production in ten days, divide it by 10 and then multiply by 365 to get the estimated yearly production and then calculate stock to flow. You might ask yourself why is this line is not more flat. This is because time between blocks is 10 minutes only in ideal cases. Sometimes is less and sometimes more. In ideal situation in one day there should be 144 blocks mined but in reality it is not. Some days have more blocks and some less. This is due to the fact that processing power of all hardware around the world is not stable all the time. New mining hardware is going on and off every minute so blocks cannot be mined at the same rate. For example if more hardware is added to bitcoin mining network then total hashrate of the newtork is higher and blocks are generated faster. Network has mechanisms implemented to deal with this by adjusting difficulty (if you want to know more about this process see links below). This line is much more flat for future days on the chart because we cannot know in the future how many blocks will be generated but we go with the assumption that it will be equal to average time between blocks in last 365 days.
Stock to flow 463 days
This is blue line and it is much more flat than the "10 days" line because in this case we take 463 days before the observed day on the chart and count how many Bitcoins were generated in total. Then stock to flow value is calculated.

There are also 4 cards below the chart:

Current S/F
This one is representing most recent calculated stock to flow value. It shows two numbers. First one (10d) is showing value calculated based on ten days production divided by 10 and multiplied by 365 to estimate yearly production and second one takes actual production in last 365 days and calculates with it. You can see time when it was calculaten on 4th card called "last update".
Current model price
Here we calculate model price in selected currency based on most recent data. It shows two values. First one is calculated based on ten days production and second one based on production in last 365 days.
Next halving estimate
Shows the date next halving event is estimated to take place. This estimation is based on a average interval between blocks in last 365 days. As it has been already said in reality blocks are not generated in ideal 10 minutes intervals so that is why average in last 365 days is taken. Small number in the brackets is showing number of days to go.
Disclaimer
Any information found on this page is not to be considered as financial advice. You should do your own research before making any decisions.

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