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Bitcoin Price Predictions & Forecasts

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Updated 57 minutes ago

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Price Prediction Chart Explained

This chart shows the Bitcoin price, and four different price models that attempt to project Bitcoin's price:
- Stock to flow
- Stock to income
- Power Law
- HPR Rainbow

Analyst Price Predictions

The below is a list of price predictions made by popular Bitcoin analysts and hedge funds.

Click on a prediction to read more.

Michael Saylor: $13,000,000 +

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin could reach $13 million in the next 21 years, a timeframe that aligns with Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins.

"If you look at the way that he extrapolated these numbers... it does make some sense. I think he put it at 7% of global capital and gets us to three, four million, and then 13 million is a simple 3X from there over a cycle."

The prediction is based on Bitcoin's four-year price cycles, inflation patterns, and the potential for Bitcoin to capture a larger portion of global capital.

Source →
Hal Finney: $10,000,000 +

Hal Finney, one of Bitcoin's pioneers who worked alongside Satoshi Nakamoto, made this bold prediction just one week after Bitcoin's launch. His vision was based on Bitcoin potentially becoming the dominant global payment system.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

While no specific timeframe was given, Finney was among the first to envision Bitcoin's potential as both a store of wealth and a decentralized payment system, demonstrating remarkable foresight in the cryptocurrency's earliest days.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim, are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...
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PlanB: $65,000 - $524,000 +

Based on his stock-to-flow model and historical halving patterns, PlanB projects Bitcoin's price to trade between $65,000 and $524,000 in the four years following the 2024 halving.

This prediction follows his analysis of previous halving cycles, where Bitcoin's price range has consistently expanded, from under $16 in 2012, to $256-$1,024 in 2016, and $4,000-$16,000 in 2020. He expects Bitcoin to be in the $16,000-$65,000 range during the 2024 halving.

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Jack Dorsey: $1,000,000+ +

Jack Dorsey, Twitter founder and Block CEO, predicts Bitcoin will exceed $20 trillion market cap by 2030.

"At least a $1 million. I do think it hits that number and goes beyond. The most amazing thing about bitcoin, apart from the founding story, is anyone who works on it, or gets paid in it, or buys it for themselves—everyone who puts any effort in to make it better—is making the entire ecosystem better, which makes the price go up."

His prediction is backed by Block's significant investment in Bitcoin infrastructure, including their commitment to invest 10% of gross profit from Bitcoin products into BTC monthly, development of a hardware wallet, and plans for a full Bitcoin mining system.

"The internet will have a native currency; it's just a matter of time. This won't happen overnight. The existing and emerging financial systems will operate in parallel for some time."
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Samson Mow: $1,000,000 +

Samson Mow, a long-time Bitcoin advocate, predicts Bitcoin reaching $1 million based on several key catalysts including spot ETF approvals, the upcoming halving event, growing adoption by nations, and renewed quantitative easing policies.

He argues that these fundamental factors, combined with the multiplier and Veblen effects, are not yet reflected in Bitcoin's current price.

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Arthur Hayes: $1,000,000 +

The former BitMEX CEO has consistently maintained a highly optimistic outlook on BTC. In a recent tweet, he predicted that BTC's price will reach $1 million, driven by a potential shift in policy by the Fed, which, in turn, could trigger a rally in risk-on assets.

"At this point, there is no excuse not to be long crypto. How many more times must they tell you that the fiat in your pocket is a filthy piece of trash. Believe in the Lord, and he shall set you free."
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Cathie Wood: $600,000 - $1.5M +

Following the approval of 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs earlier this month, including the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, Cathie Wood shared her bullish outlook for Bitcoin's future.

In a recent CNBC interview, Wood reiterated that her base case scenario sees Bitcoin reaching $600,000 by the end of this decade, with potential upside to $1.5 million under more optimistic conditions.

This prediction comes at a significant time as ARK Invest's own Bitcoin ETF product enters the market alongside other major institutional players.

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CoinFund: Up to $500,000 +

CoinFund's Seth Ginns provides one of the most bullish Bitcoin predictions for 2024, citing decreasing dollar strength and upcoming ETF developments.

"Bitcoin has a strong inverse correlation with the dollar and real yields, and both are now going down," Seth Ginns, managing partner at CoinFund, told CNBC via email. "We also expect the follow through inflows post-launch of the BTC spot ETF, as well as growing excitement around the likely approval of ETH (ether) spot ETFs later in 2024, will be quite meaningful."

While Ginns believes Bitcoin could reach $1M in the future, he suggests a more realistic target of $250,000-$500,000 for 2024 as regulatory clarity improves.

Source →


Video Explanation

Power Law

The Bitcoin power law was created by Giovanni Santostasi (@Giovann35084111 on Twitter) in 2015.

Giovanno is a physicist, neuroscientist, and financial analyst.

You can read his recent overview of how he created the model here.

The power law aims to project the price of Bitcoin based on the following assumption:

Bitcoin's price, users, and mining power increase in a predictable way, like a city growing, where each part influences the others in a continuous feedback loop.

Stock to Flow

Stock to flow was created by PlanB in 2019.

Stock to flow is a model used to determine the scarcity of assets. The model can also be used to predict prices of assets based on scarcity.

Formula:
The formula for stock to flow is simple.

Stock to flow equals: Stock / Flow

Stock is the current amount of an asset.
Flow is the amount of an asset produced in a given year.

Let's say there are 20 million bitcoins, and 200,000 new bitcoins are issued each year.

Our equation would be:

20,000,000 total BTC / 200,000 new BTC per year = 100 stock to flow (S2F)

Based on this S2F value, a model is created to attempt to project the Bitcoin price based on scarcity.

Stock to Income

The Bitcoin Stock to Income model is based on the Stock to Flow model, with two major differences:

- Stock to flow does NOT account for transaction fees earned by miners, only new bitcoins. Stock to income includes miner fees in flow.
- Stock to flow only used data until March 2019, which is when it came out. Stock to income is re-generated daily, ensuring an accurate model.

Stock to income aims to paint a more accurate projection of the Bitcoin price, using current data and accounting for miners' transaction fees earned as flow.

Created by @_digitalik_.

Halving Price Regression

The Halving Price Regression (HPR) is a non-linear regression curve calculated using only the Bitcoin prices on the Bitcoin halving dates.

This method excludes the hype cycles to create a conservative price estimate.

Disclaimer
Any information found on this page is not to be considered as financial advice. You should do your own research before making any decisions.

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