Power Law Oscillator
A chart showing Bitcoin's price vs the power law.
Bitcoin Long Term Power Law
Data & charts updated every hour
Updated
44 minutes ago
TradingView
Chart
Fair Price (Regression)
$165,524
Power law model price
Support Price
$58,730
Historical floor
Resistance Price
$582,167
Cycle top band
Deviation from Fair
-61.7%
Below fair value
Ahead of Support
3 months
Until support reaches current price
Band Position
Where the current price sits between support (0%) and resistance (100%).
The Formula
Estimated Price = A × (days from GB)n
GB (Genesis Block)
January 3, 2009
A (constant)
10-17.016
n (exponent)
5.845
Estimated dates when the power law fair price line crosses key price levels, compared to when Bitcoin actually reached that price.
| Price | Model Estimate | Actually Reached | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1 | March 26, 2011 | February 13, 2011 | -41d (early) |
| $10 | April 23, 2012 | June 03, 2011 | -325d (early) |
| $100 | November 27, 2013 | April 01, 2013 | -240d (early) |
| $1.0K | April 11, 2016 | November 28, 2013 | -865d (early) |
| $10.0K | October 15, 2019 | December 01, 2017 | -683d (early) |
| $100.0K | December 29, 2024 | December 08, 2024 | -21d (early) |
| $1.0M | September 19, 2032 | — | Projected |
| $10.0M | March 02, 2044 | — | Projected |
| $100.0M | February 23, 2061 | — | Projected |
| $1.0B | April 28, 2086 | — | Projected |
Yearly averages of actual Bitcoin price vs. power law model prediction. Deviation is the average daily deviation from fair price across the year.
| Year | Avg. Actual Price | Avg. Fair Price | Avg. Deviation | R² (cumulative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $5 | $2 | +162.5% | 0.2073 |
| 2012 | $8 | $15 | -41.8% | 0.2383 |
| 2013 | $189 | $64 | +140.4% | 0.7459 |
| 2014 | $525 | $203 | +203.5% | 0.8124 |
| 2015 | $272 | $532 | -47.0% | 0.8201 |
| 2016 | $567 | $1,221 | -53.5% | 0.8295 |
| 2017 | $3,982 | $2,527 | +39.1% | 0.8692 |
| 2018 | $7,547 | $4,823 | +69.4% | 0.8968 |
| 2019 | $7,379 | $8,633 | -15.8% | 0.9122 |
| 2020 | $11,118 | $14,673 | -25.8% | 0.9232 |
| 2021 | $47,429 | $23,861 | +100.7% | 0.9338 |
| 2022 | $28,186 | $37,364 | -20.2% | 0.9383 |
| 2023 | $28,862 | $56,670 | -49.4% | 0.9399 |
| 2024 | $65,964 | $83,652 | -21.6% | 0.9459 |
| 2025 | $101,664 | $120,512 | -15.1% | 0.9514 |
| 2026 | $75,691 | $153,993 | -50.7% | 0.9516 |
Average monthly deviation of Bitcoin's actual price from the power law fair price. Green = undervalued, red = overvalued relative to the model.
DCA Investment Calculator
Estimate investment returns based on the power law model. Uses the fair price projection to estimate future BTC prices.
% per year — used for purchase prices. Portfolio valued at power law fair price.
Floor Price Calculator
Find the estimated date when the power law support line permanently exceeds a given price. After this date, the model predicts BTC will never go below that price.
Date Lookup
Look up what the power law model predicts for any date. Enter a date to see the projected fair price, support, and resistance.
This chart is inspired by @Giovann35084111's post on reddit.
Bitcoin Long Term Power Law Explained
This chart is derived by taking two bands of bitcoin prices.
- A resistance price above the current price
- A support price below the current price
These resistance and support bands were derived by taking a linear regression of the historical bitcoin price to derive a "power law". This power law is just a straight line to represent the correlation between bitcoin's price and time. This line is then perfectly copied (including its slope) twice. With these two new lines,
- One is lowered such that the historical bitcoin price is always equal to or greater than the prices hitting that
line - the support line.
- One is raised such that the historical bitcoin price is always equal to or less than the prices hitting that
line - the resistance line.
How to Interpret the Bitcoin Long Term Power Law Chart
Using this chart, two conclusions (or perhaps, assumptions) are made.
1. The price will reach $100,000 per bitcoin no earlier than 2021 and no later than 2028. After 2028, the price
will never drop below $100,000.
2. The price will reach $1,000,000 per bitcoin no earlier than 2028 and no later than 2037. After 2037, the price
will never drop below $1,000,000.
As always, the logic of this chart and the assumptions derived from it depend on bitcoin's previous performance being indicative of the future. That is always the case when relying on any sort of linear regression. However, unanticipated events may drastically alter that behavior in the future, so one should not take the price predictions made by this chart as gospel.
About the Creator
The Bitcoin Power Law model was created by Giovanni Santostasi, a physicist and neuroscientist. First shared as a Reddit post in 2018, the model applies power law dynamics -- commonly found in natural and social phenomena -- to Bitcoin's price history. Santostasi's key insight was that Bitcoin's price, when plotted on a log-log scale against time (days since the genesis block), forms a remarkably straight line, suggesting the price follows a power law relationship rather than exponential growth.
Disclaimer
Any information found on this page is not to be considered as financial advice. You should do your own research before making any decisions.
