Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model V1 (Bands)

Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model V1 (Bands)

This chart displays the Bitcoin Stock to Flow model with standard deviation bands, based on the original work by 100trillionUSD (PlanB).

The model is smoothed using a 463-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a timeframe derived from Preston Pysh's analysis of Bitcoin market cycles.

The 463-day period was calculated based on Pysh's observation that Bitcoin cycles consist of three phases (Bull Run, Correction, and Reversion to Mean), with approximately 200,000 blocks per cycle and 144 blocks mined per day.

The bands on the chart represent standard deviations from the smoothed Stock to Flow line:

• The dark gray zone shows 1 standard deviation from the mean
• The lighter gray zone shows 2 standard deviations from the mean

These bands help identify potential overbought and oversold conditions when Bitcoin's price significantly deviates from the stock to flow model.