Cycle Repeat Scenarios

Cycle Repeat Scenarios Explained

Bitcoin's history is divided into eras by halving events:

• Era 1 – Genesis to Nov 28, 2012 (1st halving)
• Era 2 – Nov 28, 2012 to Jul 9, 2016 (2nd halving)
• Era 3 – Jul 9, 2016 to May 11, 2020 (3rd halving)
• Era 4 – May 11, 2020 to Apr 19, 2024 (4th halving)
• Era 5 – Apr 19, 2024 to present (current era)

This chart shows Bitcoin's recent price history alongside four future projections. Each projection takes the first 1,458 days of a past era's price behavior and repeats it forward from today. The four scenarios are:

• If Era 4 repeats – what if the next 1,458 days follow Era 4's pattern (2020–2024)
• If Era 3 repeats – what if the next 1,458 days follow Era 3's pattern (2016–2020)
• If Era 2 repeats – what if the next 1,458 days follow Era 2's pattern (2012–2016)
• If Era 1 repeats – what if the next 1,458 days follow Era 1's pattern (genesis–2012)

By overlaying all four scenarios on a single chart, you can compare how each past era suggests Bitcoin might perform over the next cycle. The projected top for each scenario is marked on the chart.