MVRV Z-Score
A chart showing Bitcoin's historical MVRV-z score.
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The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a technical tool used to identify potential peaks in Bitcoin's price cycles. Introduced by Philip Swift of LookIntoBitcoin in April 2019, it leverages two key moving averages to provide insight into when Bitcoin might be approaching a local or cycle top.
The indicator utilizes two distinct moving averages:
111-Day Moving Average (111DMA): This moving average captures Bitcoin's short-term price trends, providing a snapshot of recent market behavior.
350-Day Moving Average Multiplied by 2 (350DMA x2): This modified long-term moving average is adjusted by a factor of two, adding an extra layer of trend analysis. The ratio of 350 to 111 is approximately 3.153, which closely resembles the mathematical constant Pi (3.142). This intriguing correlation is the foundation of the indicator's name and its methodology.
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator signals a potential market top when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA x2. This crossing point suggests that Bitcoin's price might have accelerated too rapidly, potentially indicating a peak in the current cycle.
This behavior is rooted in the cyclical nature of Bitcoin's market, where price movements tend to follow a rhythmic pattern. By using this indicator, analysts aim to identify the moments when Bitcoin may be overextended, allowing for more informed decision-making.
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has demonstrated its effectiveness:
April 2013: The indicator signaled on April 5th, with Bitcoin priced at $142.30. Four days later, Bitcoin peaked at $230 before undergoing a sharp 65.50% correction.
December 2017: On December 14th, the indicator triggered at $16,341. Three days later, Bitcoin reached $19,927 before plummeting by 84.03%.
April 2021: Most recently, the indicator predicted a top on April 3rd at $58,931. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $64,816 eleven days later, followed by a 52.94% decline.
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